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John Burton Mustin-Lieutenant, United States
Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1990
Master of Science in Operations Research-September 1996
Advisor: Sam Parry, Department of Operations Research
Second Reader: George Conner, Department of Operations Research


One of the primary training tools available to a Unified Commander in Chief (CINC) for training his staff on their joint mission essential tasks (JMETLs) is a command post exercise supported by a computer simulation model, commonly referred to as a Computer Aided Exercise (CAX). Currently, little quantitative data are captured during the exercise allowing for quick postexercise analysis of critical staff processes inherent in the CINC's exercise training objectives. The objective of this thesis is to develop an exercise analysis methodology for evaluating the execution of joint tasks during the conduct of a CAX. Specific objectives are first to demonstrate a methodology for developing quantifiable measures of effectiveness (MOEs). These MOEs must reflect the hierarchical structure of tasks given in the Universal Joint Tasks List (UJTL) as applied to three levels of war (vertical linkage), and functionality considerations between related enabling tasks (horizontal linkage). The second specific objective is to determine methods to capture task performance data within the design of the simulation. This is intended to support the exercise analysis by capturing critical decisions, assumptions, and causal factors which, in turn, lead to observed scenario outcomes. This objective involves demonstrating the methodology in an exercise conducted utilizing the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS). The effort in this thesis is focused exclusively on joint tasks involving force protection, particularly air defense, of a battlegroup in the littoral region; however, the principles of the methodology are applicable to the entire spectrum of tasks in the UJTL.